Trevor Dean Arnold
I am a Postdoctoral Associate in the Department of Economics at the University of Calgary
Research Interests: applied microeconomics, applied econometrics, environmental economics
Topics: climate policy, energy policy, climate change
CV: download
Contact: trevor.arnold@ucalgary.ca
Welcome. My name is Dean. I am an economist interested in policy relevant research about mitigating carbon emissions and adapting to climate change. I study the effectiveness of policies that seek to reduce emissions and how their design may create unintended consequences.
Education
Ph.D., Applied Economics & Management, Cornell University — 2026
M.P.P.., Public Policy, University of Chicago — 2019
B.S., Sustainability, Arizona State University — 2016
Working papers
"The Welfare Effects of Heat Pump Subsidies"
"Did New York City's Carbon Pricing Scheme Reduce Emissions?"
Presented: AERE Summer 2024, Harvard Climate Economics Pipeline Workshop 2024, Real Estate and Urban Economics Symposium 2025
Do local carbon pricing policies reduce emissions? I estimate the causal effects of New York City’s carbon emissions policy during the five-year adjustment period between its passage and the first compliance deadline. Using a difference-in-differences design around the emissions-intensity threshold that determines treatment, I find anticipatory emissions reductions of 8.65%, a magnitude more in line with national carbon policies than with prior city-level efforts. These findings add to growing evidence that credible, well-communicated local regulations can prompt substantial preemptive abatement. Accounting for both global and local environmental benefits, the policy is estimated togenerate $16.53–22.92 million in benefits for the treated buildings, before any compliance obligations take effect.
"The Impact of Climate Change on Human Capital: Evidence from a Failed Meta-Analysis"
with Patrick Behrer, Teevrat Garg, Alaka Holla, Adriana Molina, Trinh Pham
Climate change may damage human capital but causal evidence remains fragmented. We conduct a systematic review of quasi-experimental studies linking climate hazards to human capital outcomes across 44 hazard-outcome pairs. Despite a large body of related work, we find few studies that meet our causal identification standards and only four hazard-outcome pairs contain at least ten eligible papers. As a result, we conclude there are not currently enough papers in any hazard-outcome pair to justify a meta-analysis. Our findings reveal a major gap between the policy relevance of the consequences of climate change for human capital and the empirical basis available to answer it. This underscores the need for more systematic, causal research on how climate change affects human capital formation.
Teaching
Teaching Assistant
Economics and Environmental Policy, Nicholas Sanders (Cornell)
Econometrics, Christopher Roark (UChicago)